Random Thoughts

Are we safe yet?

The Washington Post writes on 1/20/2009: "'The OIG [Office of the Inspector General] report finds no intentional attempts to obtain records that counterterrorism personnel knew they were not legally entitled to obtain,' said Michael P. Kortan, the FBI's assistant director for public affairs. 'No FBI employee obtained telephone records for reasons other than a legitimate investigative interest. FBI employees involved in this matter obtained the telephone records at issue to perform their critical mission to prevent a terrorist attack or otherwise to support a counterterrorism investigation.'" And so goes the public relations spin from our government. 

"Trust us," they told us. "We won't abuse our new Patriot Act powers. We will only use them to investigate terrorists!"

Now we find out that they improperly obtained access to records for thousands of phone numbers. Were there really that many phone numbers involved in terrorism? I don't think so! Many Americans and government officials think that anyone who is swarthy-looking is a terrorist. Yet in today's diverse America such people could be your neighbors, spouses, relatives and friends. Additionally National Security Letters used to get these records make it easy to fish for leads in investigations that have nothing to do with terrorism. They encourage lazy investigative techniques. They are killing dolphins when fishing for tuna using overly large nets.

Ever since the Nixon era, our government has been chipping away at our civil rights slowly but surely in the guise of fighting one war or another. First it was the War on Drugs, and now it's the War on Terrorism. Anytime you label something a war, you give yourself permission to do things that you wouldn't otherwise have the right to do so. Since these wars are open ended - we will never be entirely free of drugs or terrorism - our government will continue to chip away at our rights. This is like the frog that doesn't jump out of the boiling cauldron because it only realizes that the water is getting warmer when its too late.

Surveillance provisions of the Patriot Act expired at the end of last year and are slated to be renewed in February or March. The Obama administration is in favor of the renewal. Congress should resist renewing the more heinous portions of the act where the government can obtain records and do surveillance without the oversight of a judge. 

As we continue to lose our freedoms we slowly become more like the terrorists and the societies they live in without ever realizing it. They don't have to kill us to win. George Orwell's 1984 was on the mark even if it was wrong by a few decades.

Rio to Host 2016 Olympics. Is Anyone Really Surprised?

So Rio got the nod for the 2016 Olympics. How could anyone be surprised? It had to be the sentimental favorite. The U.S. has hosted the Olympics six times - two cities have hosted it twice! Japan has hosted the Olympics twice, and Spain has hosted it once. So Brazil, and more importantly South America, who have never hosted an Olympics had to get one just for fairness.

Certainly Rio has a lot to do in the next seven years. It does not have as many facilities already built as do Chicago, Madrid and Tokyo. It has rampant poverty that is all too visible in the favelas. It also has a very high crime rate. Perhaps Brazil can now address some of the domestic problems that have been neglected for years. After all, it wants to present its best face to the rest of the world.

President Obama, first lady Michelle Obama, Oprah Winfrey, and the mayor of Chicago all went to Denmark to try to convince the committee that Chicago should get the nod. Yet it lost out in the first round of balloting. Some will say that the President wasted his time and prestige. But he would have been criticized no matter what. If he didn't go, many would say that he didn't use his rock star status in Europe to press for the bid. Now he is being criticized for going for too short a time. He can't win no matter what he does.

Chicago supporters should know that there is always 2020. There is no reason that the same bid couldn't be presented again. This time there would be eleven years to prepare instead of seven.

What the Philadelphia Inquirer Can Do to Improve Circulation

The Philadelphia Inquirer is one of the great urban newspapers. I especially like the way it uses charts and maps to cover the news. I even has a nationally syndicated cartoonist.  However, it does a poor job of covering local and regional news. Much of the local news coverage is focused on Philadelphia and the suburban counties get short shrift.

There are seven suburban counties in the Philadelphia region: Delaware, Chester, Montgomery, Bucks, Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester. Much of what is important to the residents of these counties is not covered by the Inquirer. This includes road construction, municipal council meetings, elections, recreation, and entertainment. Some of the broader issues such as the large number of municipalities and school boards in NJ do get covered, but the real local issues do not. For example: the realignment of route 29 through Collegeville, the 202 bypass in Montgomery, the extension of the Schuylkill River Bike Trail in Chester County, local election issues, and many other newsworthy events. Much of these are covered by the dozen or so local newspapers such as the Pottstown Mercury and the Burlington County News. Unfortunately, few of us can afford to subscribe to two newspapers at once. Because I subscribe to the Inquirer, I know more about corruption in the BRT than I know about the issues at my borough council.

I propose a news sharing arrangement between the Inquirer and the local papers. The Inquirer is good at International, National, State and wide regional news while the local papers are good at local news. Suppose the Inquirer had a suburban section once or twice a week and carried articles about major road construction, municipal council meetings, etc. These would be written by reporters from the local newspapers. They would get a byline and their newspaper would be credited. In exchange, the Inquirer would allow some of its international/national/state articles to be published in the local papers with the appropriate credit. This would be a win-win situation for the Inquirer and the local papers. The Inquirer would get better local news coverage from reporters that are close to the local events, and the local newspapers would get better international/national/state coverage. Additionally, local reporters would get wider exposure and a boost to their careers. Both sets of newspapers would get better overall coverage and perhaps they could stem the loss of subscribers.

How agile can you be?

In the beginning, the waterfall method of software development dominated. The requirements flowed over the cliff to the designers; the design flowed over the cliff to the developers; the code flowed over the cliff to the testers; and the software was tflowed the cliff to manufacturing. Over time it was determined that as long as bugs were being found in testing, the design/development/testing cycle had to go through several iterations before it went to manufacturing. Thus was born the tornado variant of the waterfall method. It was still the case that all requirements and features were coded prior to the first iteration release to testing.

Then, testing started using automation as tools used to develop automated test suites became available. That meant that testers needed the software available sooner - or at least in pre-release form - to be able to write the automated tests. Software managers discovered that they did not have to implement all the requirements and features for the first iteration. They needed to do just enough to give the testers the ability to write their tests.

Soon software managers discovered that if they did small iterations, testing was simpler and rework was easier. Thus, about ten years ago the agile methodology was born. Agile is built on the premise that each iteration implements a few requirements and the software is built up incrementally. Instead of having two to four large iterations, ten or more small ones are done. Agile also introduced a new concept: at the end of each iteration, the software would be fully releasable and management could decide not to implement any more requirements or features. These unimplemented requirements and features could be left to the next release.

Now agile is all the rage. But agile is not a silver bullet. If not done properly, it may lead to chaos and loss of control. 

Agile requires good detailed requirements definition. Agile iterations are two to four weeks long and there is only one to two weeks of development time. There can be no confusion as to what requirements and features are being implemented. Under the waterfall method, requirements and feature definitions can be left very general. The designers and developers can work out the details. There is no time for this in agile development. Additionally, in the waterfall method, the order in which the requirements and features are implemented is unimportant and sometimes they are done inside to outside, i.e. the internals are done first and the user interface last. In agile order is critical since each iteration results in a releasable product. You can't wait until iteration six to do the user interface. You must have enough requirements and features done to result in a usable product.

Agile requires unit testing to be more rigorous. In the waterfall method some developers would leave complex testing to be done by system testing and then fix any bugs found. The shortened iteration times don't allow for this. More problems need to be caught earlier for agile to succeed. Automated unit testing is very important. That can lead to test driven development where developers code to test cases instead of requirements and features.

Agile requires a well defined integration testing plan. Only a few days can be devoted to integration testing. In the waterfall method, integration testing can be ad hoc since a week or more can be devoted to it. Not so in agile. A detailed plan has to be created to keep the iteration on track.

Agile requires system testing to be very efficient. One to two weeks isn't much time to do testing. Additionally as each iteration is tested, the requirements and features from previous iterations must be retested to ensure that new requirements and features didn't break those previously implemented. That means that testing must rely on automation. Yet not everything can be tested using automation. Some user interface elements must be tested by visual inspection.

Agile requires that build and release software and documentation be kept up to date. Since the product can be released at the end of any iteration, the build and release scripts and the documentation must be ready. In the waterfall method documentation could be left until the last iteration.

Agile requires that the entire software development process and team be more efficient and more disciplined. With the shortened iteration cycles there is no time to be wasteful. Otherwise the iterations will start being longer and longer until the process turns back into the waterfall method.

The ER is not just for the uninsured

In the last year my mother has been to the ER several times. She is elderly, unsteady and has osteoporosis. She fell a number of times and broke her shoulder and and her wrist. Each time this happened in the middle of the night. Since her regular doctor nor her orthopedist are not available at night, she was packed off to the ER.

I'm a volunteer ski patroller who works evenings and weekends at Spring Mountain Ski area. We deal with a great deal of trauma injuries. Because these happen in the evening and on the weekends, we send many to the ER via ambulance. We might send some to their regular doctor instead of the ER if that doctor were available evenings or weekends.

The moral of these two stories is that doctors and doctor's offices are not open nights, weekends and holidays. So if you come home from work on Friday feeling poorly, and your fever spikes to 102F on Saturday, you go to the ER or wait to see your doctor on Monday, Tuesday if it is a holiday weekend. There are 168 hours in a week and doctors are available to see patients in their offices less than 40 hours. That's less than 1/4 of the week!

Politicians talk about getting the uninsured covered so that they don't use the expensive ER for non-emergency care. But those who are insured use the ER for non-emergency care also. When they get sick or injured at night or on the weekends they go to the ER. Since everyone knows that an ambulance patient has priority over a walk-in at the ER, many go by ambulance when they could have been driven driving up the cost even further.

The ER should only be used for real emergencies: life or limb threatening illnesses and injuries. Many illnesses and injuries don't need emergency care but can't wait days to be treated. If you call your doctor after hours, you often get a service or an alternate on-call doctor who sends you to the ER anyway. If the system had doctors available 24/7 outside the ER, costs could be reduced. But doctors don't want to work second and third shift. Only hospital interns and residents work these shifts and they look forward to the day they don't have to.

Perhaps doctors need to be part of after hours co-operatives where they each take a turn seeing each other's patients nights, weekends and holidays. They would accept whatever fee the primary doctor accepts and bill whatever insurance would be billed by the primary doctor. Follow-up care would be with the primary doctor. Only patients really needing to see the doctor after hours would be seen. New flu cases and non-emergency broken bones would be some of the cases they would treat. They wouldn't see patients with rashes or nail fungus which could wait until regular hours. 

If we want to reduce costs in our healthcare system, we need to make non-ER doctors more available. I'm surprised insurance companies aren't lobbying for this.

I'm From the Government and I'm Here to Help You

That phrase "I'm from the government and I'm here to help you," has been the butt of jokes for many years. The implication is that the government can't do anything right and any attempt to help people turns into a mess. That is what Republicans and Blue Dog Democrats are saying about health care. They claim that allowing the government to run one of the options for health care insurance will lead to "death panels," "euthanasia of the elderly," and as Sarah Palin said, is downright evil. 

It's interesting to note that the same people who asked us to trust the government with secret spying and enhanced interrogation methods now tell us that it cannot reform health care. "Trust the government," they said. It will only spy on terrorists and only the worst of the worst will be tortured. Now we find that many of the detainees at Guantanamo were not terrorists at all and should never have been there. 

So if we can't trust our government to keep us safe, and we can't trust our government to set a level playing field and bring down costs in health care, what can we trust it to do? In the 1990's we had real welfare reform while some were claiming that welfare recipients would starve to death when their benefits ran out. That didn't happen and most everyone said that the reform was a success. That shows that we could have real health care reform if the extremist rhetoric on both sides is toned down. Lack of reform will not cause the US to fail, and reform will not cause people to die. But the reform must be something that most everyone can buy into. Otherwise we will again go decades before reform is again attempted and we will limp along with seriously broken system.

The Scarlet Letter

Nathaniel Hawthorne wrote a novel in the 19th century about a puritan woman who committed adultery and was forced to wear a scarlet letter A so that everyone could see that she was punished for the horrendous crime of adultery. Now we are doing the same thing to sex offenders. We have required them to be registered so that anyone with internet access can see where they live. Even worse, Apple recently released an iPhone app that makes looking up these people as easy as a few swipes of your finger. 

This might be OK if all these people we are talking about were the crazed Snidely Wiplash child molester types. But many aren't. People have been labeled sex offenders for being 18 and having sex with a 15 year old, for urinating in public, for skinny dipping. Our sex crimes system is so out of wack that people are being branded for life for petty offenses. We now have draconian restrictions on sex offenders making it almost impossible for them to find a place to live. In many communities they can't live within 1000 feet of churches and where children congregate. That can make almost an entire community off-limits. Sex offenders in Miami are now homeless living under a bridge. Do we really want this? Public officials are so scared of being soft on sex offenders that they pass laws with ever harsher punishments.

It is true that the worst sex offenders, forcible rapists and child molesters, have some of the highest recidivism rates and some of the lowest rehabilitation rates among the entire criminal population. But our justice system has always been about serving your time and being reintegrated back into regular society. That is not happening with sex offenders. Instead we are painting ever more people as sex offenders for life with no hope of ever being rehabilitated and going back to a normal life. Once you are labeled as such there is no way to get out of the system. This is punishment for life. 

There is no evidence that letting the community know where sex offenders live and restricting where they can live and congregate makes the community any safer. In fact, there is evidence that it leads to harassment and intimidation of the offenders even if they are leading normal quiet lives. It makes parents feel better, but their kids spend at least one third of their day out of their sight. Only proper communication and education can teach kids how to be safe. Our current system just teaches children that retribution and banishment are the answers to problems.

We need to stop being hysterical about this and find better solutions so that real sex offenders get the punishment and help they need, and petty offenders are not caught up in the dragnet. A first start would be to better define what a sex offense is. You can be sure that these labels have been used by crusading prosecutors against people they don't like to inflate their own sense of power and importance. Apple should also consider pulling the app from the app store.

Who's in Charge?

After seeing my mother in and out of hospitals and in assisted care recently, my family and I find that no one is in charge of my mother's overall medical care. That means that her family needs to step in to make sure she gets the proper care and sees the proper people. My mother herself is not capable of directing her own medical care and I can't imagine what people who don't have pit bull families do to navigate the byzantine health care system we have. 

As I see it, one of the biggest problems we have is that the system is far too specialized. Everyone is responsible for one piece of the system and has no responsibility or incentive to connect properly to other parts of the system. My mother has ten different specialist doctors such as an oncologist, a pulmonologist, an opthalmologist, an orthopeadist, a cardiologist, etc. They only get measured on how they perform their part. No one individual knows what is happening with a patient overall and can make global holistic decisions. The fantasy that HMOs have pushed that the family doctor would do this hasn't happened. Those doctors have no time since they are being paid for volume instead of quality. As a result, it is left up to the individual or family members who also have their own lives and medical conditions with which to deal. The current reform in health care does not deal with this.

I think we should have a new type of doctor specialty - patient management. This doctor does not see patients directly, but deals with patients as a whole. This doctor manages a patient's complete medical care. All medical decisions by any one else (except in emergencies) must be discussed with the patient's case manager. That is all this doctor does. The patient would still have a family doctor and specialists who see the patient face to face, but the patient manager would see the global picture. The patient manager would be available to patients and providers via phone, e-mail, etc. The patient manager would recognize when a patient needs a treatment that other doctors who are too specialized aren't seeing.

This person would also manage the patient's records. When my mother was in the ER she did not have her medications nor access to her prescriptions and as a result, her blood pressure skyrocketed and she was denied care until it was returned to a more normal state. If she had a case manager, this could have been fixed with a few phone calls in a few minutes. The patient manager would have been involved from the beginning.

Because the patient manager would be a doctor, that person could work with doctors to make proper treatment decisions. Doctors would more likely accept the doctor patient manager as part of the decision making process. Currently insurance companies and hospitals have case managers, but they are not usually doctors and their focus is to keep the insurance company or hospital from being sued or spending too much money.

Hospitals have started hiring hospitalists who do what I am describing here because this is an ongoing problem. Hospitalists are doctors. However, they work for a hospital and only manage patients while in that hospital. We need someone dedicated to the patient in an out of the hospital.


Is it 1984 Yet?

Recently when Amazon.com discovered that they had sold copies of 1984 and Animal Farm to Kindle owners from a distributor who did not have the rights to the books. As a result they unceremoniously deleted the books from the Kindles of those who had downloaded them and refunded the money without any advance warning. 

Yet another case of someone behaving badly! Amazon made two crucial mistakes here. They failed to ensure that their book source had the proper rights to the books and they trampled their customers in the rush to take back the books. Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon was forced to apologize when this issue became more widely known and an outcry ensued. 

A better solution to this situation would have been to send each book owner a communication explaining the situation and offering them not only a full refund but also the option to receive print copies of the books. Then, by a certain date the electronic copies of the books would be retrieved. Waiting for customers to digest this sad state of affairs would not have lost the rights holders any money. This was not an emergency during which they needed to immediately get back all copies. No state secrets were at risk.

A bigger issue here is who owns the electronic book you paid for? When you buy a print book, no one can come and take it back. But it is too easy for someone to take back an electronic book from a device that is always connected to the source. For years, software vendors have pushed the fiction that you don't own the software you purchase, just the right to use it. This has never been fully tested in court. Now booksellers are moving towards that paradigm. Already they make it difficult to lend an electronic book to someone else without lending the reading device too. I can buy a print book and everyone in my family can read that one copy while I am reading another a book. Not so for electronic books. I have to be without my reader for a while. So I can't read a second electronic book while my family reads the first one. Publishers and writers see a way of making everyone who reads a book purchase a new copy for which they get royalties.

If I don't fully own a book I download electronically, who does? And can the owner take it back if I don't use it the way they want me to? Amazon has answered these questions their way. Currently there are no laws or court cases covering this situation exactly. The only thing that covers this is the End User License Agreement (EULA) that electronic reader owners agree to when they sign up for book downloads. Booksellers would like to view a EULA as a contract that makes the reader bound by the terms and conditions. But it has one big problem that goes against the legal requirements necessary to make this a contract. The buyer has no way to negotiate the terms and conditions. They just have a take it or leave it situation. Ereader and Ebook sellers would say that you can just buy print books if you don't like the situation. But that's just like saying you can walk if you don't like the terms and conditions that come with buying a car.

Readers can't have unfettered rights to copy a book and sellers can't force everyone who reads a book to pay for it. Do we really want libraries to charge for reading a book? We need a way to protect the rights of book owners while at the same time protecting the rights of publishers and writers. At the same time, booksellers need to be sure that they have the right to sell a book in whatever form they are offering.

What Sarah Palin Should Do

Now that Sarah Palin is no longer governor of Alaska she has to decide what to with herself. If she is considering running for president in 2012, then she needs to be a more serious speaker.

She should hire a staff that will help her learn the issues, help her write speeches that are not rambling and inarticulate, and help her pick some good occasions to give these speeches. She should probably give about 5 - 10 speeches over the next 12 months and campaign for fellow her Republicans running in the 2010 midterm elections. She could probably get $15,000 - $25,000 per speech and that would keep her financially sound while she explored her chances on the national stage.

Right now there is no one else besides Ms. Palin who fires up the Republican base and is well liked among the Republican rank and file. She needs to gain some stature by showing that she can speak effectively and that she has a grasp of the issues. Otherwise she will remain all fluff and no substance and she will continue to be seen as a quitter.

The opportunity is hers for the taking.

Recent Entries

  1. Are we safe yet?
    Wednesday, January 20, 2010
  2. Rio to Host 2016 Olympics. Is Anyone Really Surprised?
    Friday, October 02, 2009
  3. What the Philadelphia Inquirer Can Do to Improve Circulation
    Monday, September 14, 2009
  4. How agile can you be?
    Monday, August 24, 2009
  5. The ER is not just for the uninsured
    Saturday, August 22, 2009
  6. I'm From the Government and I'm Here to Help You
    Tuesday, August 11, 2009
  7. The Scarlet Letter
    Tuesday, August 04, 2009
  8. Who's in Charge?
    Thursday, July 30, 2009
  9. Is it 1984 Yet?
    Monday, July 27, 2009
  10. What Sarah Palin Should Do
    Sunday, July 26, 2009

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  1. Joe Voicheck on The ER is not just for the uninsured
    9/14/2009
  2. Mike Hogan on Who's in Charge?
    7/31/2009
  3. Rebecca on The Professor Henry Gates Controversy
    7/31/2009
  4. Joel Vardy on The Professor Henry Gates Controversy
    7/27/2009
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